October wood pulp outer disk continues to run counter to the spot
In October, the import of softwood outer discs continued to be flat, and affected by the depreciation of the Renminbi, paper mills and traders were less motivated. The Arauco and Russian Ilim wood pulp outer plates that have been announced in November continue to be flat, and some operators have reported that the downstream price is buying, and this round may be difficult to close.
In the domestic spot market, the price trend of imported wood pulp in the spot market in October was mainly below, and the price of softwood pulp and broadleaf pulp fell by 350-550 yuan/ton. As of October 26, the monitoring data showed that the monthly average price of imported softwood pulp was 6,684 yuan/ton, down 2.13% from the previous month and down 5.76% year-on-year; the average monthly price of broadleaf pulp was 6003 yuan/ton, down 2.15% from the previous month. It fell by 3.17%.
The main factors affecting the market:
Good factor
Downstream white cardboard sent a price increase to support the current market
In late October, APP, Chenming, Sun and Bohui Paper successively sent letters, which were affected by the increase in raw material prices. Since October 26, the price of white cardboard has risen by 100 yuan/ton, which is conducive to boosting market confidence. .
The pulp outside the plate is stable, slowing down the spot rate
Since the beginning of this year, the external trend of wood pulp is at a high level, the depreciation of the renminbi and the Sino-US trade war and other factors have led to high pressure on the spot price of wood pulp, and the business is upside down. The imported wood pulp outer disk is relatively stable, which indirectly helps to slow down the price decline in the spot market.
Negative factor
The pulp stocks in the main areas are at a high level, which affects the enthusiasm of the purchasers of raw materials.
Since 2018, the pulp stocks in the main areas of China have been at the same high level as the pulp prices. In October, the pulp stocks of imported wood pulp Qingdao and Baoding have reached new highs. According to incomplete statistics, in late October, Qingdao Port's pulp stocks increased by 17% from the end of last month, an increase of 106% compared with the same period of last year; pulp stocks in Baoding increased by 23% from the end of last month, and increased by 230% compared with the same period of last year; pulp in Changshu area Inventories increased by 126% compared to the same period last year.
According to the information analysis, the high-level pulp stocks in the main areas are directly related to the arrival of goods in the middle and late, the slow consumption of raw materials in downstream paper mills, and the inactive trading in the pulp market. High stocks were negative in the market, and the price of pulp continued to be under pressure.
The downstream paper product market price fell, the pulp market volume is flat
The downstream paper prices continued to stabilize in the downward trend. According to the monitoring data, the monthly average price of household paper fell by 0.66%, the monthly average price of coated paper fell by 0.87%, and the average monthly price of double-coated paper fell by 0.86%. According to market news feedback, the paper product market is generally in a state of general, the paper price continues to be under pressure, which in turn leads to a decrease in the enthusiasm of the paper mill raw materials, which is not conducive to the effective volume of the pulp market.
View
Analysis, at present, the favorable factors of the pulp market are “sound weakâ€, and the negative factors are prominent. Especially when the macro factors have a large impact on the market trend this year, the demand fatigue can no longer be concealed. After the market returns to supply and demand, the price of pulp is rationally falling. It is expected that the short-term continuation will continue to decline in a narrow range and the transaction will be just needed. In the autumn of October, the traditional peak season of the wood pulp and paper industry is gradually drifting away.
In addition to paying attention to supply and demand changes, it is also recommended that the industry should pay attention to the market reaction after the pulp futures are listed.
Responsible editor: Ge
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