In the past two years, from the fourth quarter to the beginning of the following year, paper prices have always come out of a wave of small bull markets. This year, with the "peak season" coming again, the price of paper does not seem to rise.
The country’s waste and corrugated paper fell, and the paper price was particularly cold this winter.
According to the data, the price of waste paper last week (10.22-10.27) showed a large-scale collective reduction in the early days of the week, and the price decline ranged from 50-200 yuan/ton. As of last Saturday, the average price of waste yellow paperboard market was 2,244.29 yuan / ton, down 3.08% compared with the beginning of the week.
The price of corrugated paper is also affected by the downward adjustment of waste paper prices, and there is no support power to lead to lower prices. The average ex-factory price of corrugated paper was 3,743.33 yuan / ton, down 1.32% compared with the beginning of the week.
Insiders pointed out that the recent waste paper market continued to be sluggish. Although it rebounded at the beginning of October, the rebound was obviously not strong and has now dropped back to a low level. The downturn in waste paper has also dragged down the price trend of corrugated paper. At this time of the previous year, the paper price has begun to take off. Correspondingly, the paper stock is also the "sweet" of many stockholders in the winter stocks.
New changes! 2021 will continue to import waste paper!
It is understood that the relevant policy changes are the main reason behind the lack of prosperity in the peak season of paper prices this year. However, in the past two years, under the policy of “Prohibition of the implementation of the reform of the import management system for the import of solid waste into foreign solid waste†and the “Regulations on the Environmental Protection of Imported Waste Paperâ€, the supply of waste paper as a raw material for the paper industry in China is limited. All the way up.
But this year the situation is very different. Judging from the current sluggish trend in the paper market, first of all, the recent relaxation of restrictions on foreign waste is one of the reasons. On October 18, the 22nd batch of approved waste paper imports reached about 2 million tons, and the factory was approved. The number is the most in the year.
According to the newly published Catalogue of Imported Waste Management, among the 32 kinds of solid wastes that were listed as banned from import on December 31, 2019, waste paper is not included, which means that by 2021, China will still Allow the import of waste paper. Affected by this, the national waste price has been falling all the way, which directly led to the pressure on the price of raw paper.
Secondly, small and medium-sized paper mills that do not want to be killed by the low-cost waste of the big paper mills are the first to cut prices to stock shipments. Therefore, the small and medium-sized paper mills have achieved remarkable results in destocking results, which has caused certain pressure on the big paper mills. Finally, in October, the price cuts of large paper mills failed, so the inventory pressure increased. The increase in downtime and the decline in demand are far beyond the expectations of big paper mills.
The CSRC assists paper companies in risk aversion and approves pulp market futures trading
Paper mills are uncomfortable with the volatility of waste paper prices. According to business analysts, since 2000, almost all of China's new cardboard papers have been derived from recycled fiber. However, due to the sorting and recycling of domestic waste paper, China's papermaking enterprises have relied on imported recycled paper to maintain production. . The fluctuation of waste paper prices is closely related to the survival of enterprises. In this year's downturn, small and medium-sized paper mills are eager to go to stock shipments, and large paper mills have difficulty in inventorying. Enterprises are in urgent need of relevant hedging tools.
“Wood pulp is one of the world's major bulk trade commodities that is not traded in mature futures markets. Among China's high share of global bulk commodity imports, iron ore, soybeans, rubber and wood pulp, only wood pulp currently has no futures market. China, Western Europe and the United States are the three major pulp markets," said Gao Linlin, an analyst at Guotai Junan Futures.
It is understood that pulp is the raw material of papermaking. According to the process, pulping can be divided into chemical pulping, chemical mechanical pulping and mechanical pulping. The pulping raw materials usually include wood, bamboo and non-wood (including rice straw, Reed, fern residue and waste paper. The downstream of global pulp includes: global household paper, global uncoated cultural paper, global coated cultural paper, global newsprint, global box corrugated and so on.
In addition, China's annual consumption of various types of paper is 110 million tons, and the average per capita is 77-78 kilograms, which is higher than the world average of 57 kilograms.
It is understood that the China Securities Regulatory Commission has recently approved the Shanghai Futures Exchange to carry out pulp futures trading. The contract is officially listed on November 26, 2018. According to industry insiders, the price of waste paper fluctuates drastically, and the demand for safe-haven enterprises has soared. The launch of pulp futures coincides with the time, which helps to improve the industry's ecology and increase the resistance of paper-making enterprises to risks.
Responsible editor: Ge
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