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Original title: True and False White Horse? 70 billion market value Kangde new research record
Source: Wild Horse Finance
Recently, the company of Condexin has received much attention.
As the leader of the new materials industry, it has always been recognized as a white horse stock in the market. Since its listing, the stock price has also risen step by step, nearly 20 times.
However, on July 25 this year, Kang Dexin suddenly appeared a flash collapse. The stock price plummeted in 10 minutes, hitting the daily limit, and 7.7 billion yuan evaporated.
What's more interesting is that through self-examination, Kang Dexin found that the probability of a person's position was flat, but for reasons of privacy protection, it is not certain.
Therefore, as of now, the plunge is still a headless case, which has caused investors to be in the fog, coupled with the recent flash crash in the stock market and subsequent changes, everyone is still in the doldrums, and running is not It is not a vote.
Therefore, from September 21 to 23, Mustang Finance went to the Kangde New Zhangjiagang Base for on-the-spot investigation, which was somewhat rewarding and shared here.
The first part - analysis of business conditions
Buying stocks is actually buying a company, and watching a stock rise does not rise. It depends on whether a company’s business conditions are good or not, and its profitability is not strong. (Of course, friends who are good at frying shells, chasing concepts, and restructuring are quiet. Eat your melon...).
Specifically to Kangdexin, it has three main businesses.
The first one is pre-coated film, which is considered to be the starting point of Kangdexin, but the industry ceiling is a bit low.
The so-called pre-coated film, to put it bluntly, is the book that we usually buy, the white wine box, the Apple mobile phone box, and some other gift boxes, the outermost layer of plastic film that can be torn off.
The above picture shows the application of precoat film
Compared with the traditional instant coating film ( directly coated with water-based rubber on materials such as cardboard), the pre-coated film can better function as waterproof, anti-fouling, abrasion-resistant, folding-resistant, chemical-resistant, etc. In developed countries such as Japan, this technology has been widely adopted.
According to the China Industrial Information Network, the market for pre-coated film products in the United States accounts for 95%, and Europe and Japan is 80%. In China, this figure is only about 30%, and there is still much room for growth.
But there is a problem in it: the ceiling of the industry is very low. At present, the total market capacity in the world is only a few billion yuan. China is only a few billion. Even if it is eaten all, it doesn't mean much.
Therefore, although Kangdexin is now the world's pre-coating film leader, the total value of this part of the product (printing and packaging products) in the first half of 2017 is only about 700 million yuan, and in 2016, it was 1.5 billion yuan.
The second is the optical film, which is the most core and mature business of Kangdexin, and the prospects are very broad.
There are many types of optical films. The most basic, our TVs, mobile phones and other display screens are actually made up of many layers of film (up to a dozen layers) to achieve a fuller look. .
The picture above shows the anatomy of the TV (mobile phone) screen.
In addition, there is a kind of anti-spy film attached to the screen of the mobile phone. The screen is clear from the front, but from the side, it is black. For those who take trains, airplanes, subways, and business activities, special practical.
Secondly, car window film, almost every car in China will be posted, and field experiments can be seen, compared with the general product, Kangde new window film has the advantage of better performance.
Experiment 1: In the case of the same or even higher UV protection rate, there is better light transmission. Of course, friends who drive this can understand it themselves;
Experiment 2: Anti-shattering, when the vehicle is loaded with a suspended iron ball at a speed of 80 kilometers per hour, the front windshield with the film is cracked and not broken, the effect is obvious (of course, this is through video, the scene is The 1.5kg iron ball was smashed from a position of more than one meter high, the glass cracked but not broken, no splash);
Experiment 3: Anti-scratch, the wire brush on the spot is brushed on the filmed car. Look carefully. When the force is very high, there will be a shallow mark at the beginning, but it will be restored after a few seconds.
Scratch proof film demonstration
Furthermore, a heat insulating film and an atomizing film.
The thermal insulation film is mainly used on the exterior wall of the building and the outer glass. It can be attached and not attached. The indoor temperature difference can be more than ten degrees. It is very obvious on the spot. In addition, not long ago, the Oriental Pearl was also used, and there was news.
The atomizing film is a product with strong visual impact. When it is not energized, it looks exactly the same as ordinary glass. After power-on, it becomes opaque and can replace the curtain. It is available in the movie "Chill".
Electronic atomization film demonstration in "Cold War"
More importantly, the two markets have just started, the technical threshold is not low, and there is a big front (money).
Then, the well-known products such as flexible film and curved TV are not introduced. Kangde has a kind of “flexible water vapor barrier film†that has been put into production. This is the core of a series of products such as flexible display, flexible electronics and flexible photovoltaic. After all, These things are all in vain.
It should be noted that waterproofing and waterproofing are two different concepts. Kangdexin's current products are the highest performance packaging barriers in the industry today, and have been applied in the field of photovoltaic power generation.
Photovoltaic power generation traditionally uses glass packaging, which is very heavy. Only this one determines that it is impossible to install it in a large building. After all, the structural strength of the building is not burdened. The production of flexible membranes solves this problem and the market is equally large.
Finally, the naked eye 3D is also hot recently.
Many friends may have seen two slap-sized "pseudo-3D" paintings on trains and tourist attractions. They are also a bit of a sense of depth, but they are a far cry from the real naked-eye 3D.
In the new base of Kangde, I saw the naked-eye 3D TV, the effect and the 3D feeling of the cinema is not bad, and Kangdexin is engaged in 3D-2D switching. After all, 3D is really dizzy.
In general, the optical film, on the one hand, has a large market inventory and incremental space. On the other hand, Kangdexin has obvious technical advantages. Therefore, in the first half of 2017, this part realized operating income of 5.107 billion yuan. The year-on-year growth of 39.16% is the core of the company's current business.
It is worth noting that with the continuous increase in market share, this part of the business growth rate has also slowed down, and with the outbreak of construction film, photovoltaic, naked-eye 3D and other markets, can bring new vitality, It is worth looking forward to.
The third is carbon fiber. The technical threshold is very high and has been mass-produced. The question is when to put it into the listed company.
Carbon fiber is a new type of fiber material with high strength and high modulus fiber with carbon content above 95%. It has high strength, light weight, corrosion resistance, extreme heat and cold, etc. From automobile to aerospace, the future It has broad application prospects and belongs to national strategic products.
And all along, Japan's Toray, Toho and Mitsubishi have occupied the top three positions in the world market, and China faces product restrictions and technical blockades.
In the first half of 2017, the production line of the first phase of the Kangde Group's Kant Group, Zhonganxin Company, with an annual output of 5,000 tons of raw silk and 1,700 tons of carbon wire has been completed and put into production, which can stably produce T700, T800, T900, T1000 and T1100. The high-performance carbon fiber material has a yield of 97.5%.
In addition, the Kangde Composite Materials Project, which is owned by Kangde Group Holdings and Kangde New Company, is also actively promoted. The first-phase production capacity of 300,000 pieces of carbon fiber composite parts has been completed and put into production in the fourth quarter of 2016, and signed with BAIC Group. The mass production contract also signed a one-billion-yuan contract with Weilai Automobile.
That is to say, in terms of technology and mass production, the promotion is quite smooth, but the problem is that the main part of the carbon fiber business is not in the Kangde new listed company system, but in the hands of the parent company Kangde Group.
Previously, Zhong Yu, chairman of the Kangde Group, had promised to put the carbon fiber business into it. Kang Dexin also specifically told us that “there has been discussions within the group. After all, from the perspective of maximizing the benefits of capital operation, it is indeed the first choice to independently list the carbon fiber business, but the chairman said that he has promised the shareholders’ friends. , you can't talk."
Of course, after all, there are too many promises of default in the stock market. Although there is no precedent for blundering people before Kang Dexin, investors have concerns and easy to understand.
The second part - the company's cultural experience
To be honest, investigating such things, if you have greeted the company and arranged it, what you can see is basically what the company wants you to see, and you want to rely on one or two days to see. It can be judged whether a certain technology is mature or not, and whether mass production is basically unrealistic.
Including the time to go to Kang Dexin, although wearing dust-proof clothes into the workshop, but nothing can see the machine is moving.
Of course, the advantage of Kangdexin is that the above mentioned technologies have been basically recognized by large companies such as Samsung, Apple and BMW. The upstream and downstream mass production data cannot be faked.
The biggest gain of the survey, in addition to a comprehensive product experience, is more about the company culture.
Let me first talk about the environment of the factory, the most impressive impression is clean and refreshing.
The base of Zhangjiagang is about 100 mu. There is no waste paper, melon skin and traces on the ground. Because it is in the canteen of the factory, and the workers have a little bit of rice, nearly 3,000 people. After eating it, the ground is also clean. Net, the description is not a superficial article.
The camera technology is a bit watery, but it’s cool to see it.
Incidentally, in the second phase of the optical film, which was laid in the middle of last year, many factories have been established for a year. This part of the project does not have to worry, the efficiency is good~
Besides the state of the people, the impression is also two words: proud and lively.
We received several friends from our brand department and securities affairs department. We walked, chatted and introduced our products to us. The deep pride of the whole process was beyond words and could not be concealed.
For example, when passing through the factory under construction, a person in charge could not wait to tell us, "The first phase of these built factories will take a year or two, and our speed is very good!"
In addition, because the author is also a native of Jiangsu, he has some understanding of local dialects, and this advantage, mixed with the effort of eating into the big canteen to find a few employees to chat.
I didn’t say anything about eating, I thought it’s more tears, and I’m going to eat a variety of dishes from north to south. Anyway, I’ve eaten much better than the “laborers†in our office buildings in Beishangguang;
Accommodation, the most common workers, four people share a room, go to bed, hotel management, baggage check-in, no need to pay accommodation, but the water and electricity charges are self-sufficient;
Leisure, the factory area in addition to the swimming pool, table tennis, badminton, tennis, basketball, yoga, gym, medical, 9-a-side football field, and even a cinema, and the kind of cinema movie (after the movie theater) We also visited)) Yes, these are free...
Salary, the number of friends who chatted was given by five to sixty-seven thousand to tens of thousands, but the types of work, pre-tax and post-tax, bonus benefits were not enough to ask, the reference was not big, and then the internship salary seemed to be low. A lot, and there are overtime, night shifts, of course, this also reflects the factory production load is sufficient.
Employees hold more than 3,000 shares and hold about 1,000 employees. However, the average person has a lot of income on this concept. How to make a profit is not particularly clear, but just happy;
Management style, the leadership of the brand department has no shelf, not at all, the staff often joked with the leader, the work is completed, and the benign cycle, of course, this may be related to each leader's personality, departmental characteristics, still can't say full This is true of companies.
Foreign employees, according to reports, the company (Zhangjiagang base) about 100 foreign employees, saw a few during the visit, mainly technical posts.
Third party, the author himself communicated with some banks and taxpayers who have some contact with Kangdexin in the southern part of Jiangsu. The general feeling is that as one of the top taxpayers in the local area, the identity of Kangdexin Private Enterprise is so large in the industrial industry. Still paying a lot of effort, it is very good.
The third part - the discussion of existing problems
Kang Dexin's overall situation is good, but there are also several problems.
The first is that the payment is slow.
In the first half of 2017, the company's accounts receivable amounted to 5.1 billion yuan, and the revenue of 6 billion yuan was still quite high.
This is mainly because its customers are big customers such as BMW Apple Samsung. The proportion of receivables within one year is basically above 95%. There is not much safety in terms of security, but it is equivalent to lengthening the payment period, to a certain extent. Reduced efficiency.
At the same time, in order to realize the technology's landing into production capacity, coupled with the market's short supply, Kangdexin's investment in recent years is not small, and many places where money is used are facts.
Of course, friends who do business and do finance also know that this is universal and there is no way in a short time.
The second is low public awareness.
The company's pre-coated film, optical film, and even carbon fiber business are directly supplied to Maotai, Yanghe, and Apple. As mentioned in the first part, if it is not for this visit, we do not know that our side is actually full of Kangde new products. .
The problem is that in China's secondary market, individual investors account for the vast majority, and the public awareness of products is low, which means that not many investors really understand the company, which is not conducive to stock prices.
Therefore, in recent years, Kang Dexin is also making adjustments, trying to directly contact the C-end. For example, the launch of its own integrated vending machine has been more common in Suzhou. Interspersed with a small story, then went to Suzhou to do things, asked a few passers-by to know Kang Dexin, the answer turned out to be "is it the vending machine", but also magic...
The third is the low valuation of mature industrial industries.
As of the close of September 27, the stock price of 27.04 yuan / share, the market value of 74.36 billion yuan, price-earnings ratio of 29.63 times, this figure, compared to these days "graphene faucet", "lithium battery" leading enterprises, rushed hundreds of times the price-earnings ratio. . . After all, the new technology of Kangde is actually in mass production.
The reason is that the plate is too big, and the other is the expectation of carbon fiber "å¿å¿‘".
The fourth is whether carbon fiber can be loaded into listed companies.
I believe that everyone in this bowl of chicken soup has been drunk. "Everyone knows that the world's highest peak is Mount Everest, but few people know which second peak is." Similarly, the carbon fiber of the Kangde Group is too bright. This is also a very good optical film attention is not enough focus.
Coupled with the fact that carbon fiber has not yet been put into the listed company, and Kangde's new "white horse stocks" positioning, naturally many people wait and see.
The above is basically the author's feelings about Kang Dexin in two days. He summed up the words of a friend in the same league. "There is a lot of development prospects, but the friends who want to stir up short-term friends are still exempted." If you want to know more, welcome at the end of the text. Leave a message, the author will try to answer, or help ask.
Moreover, it is still the same sentence. The things that can be seen in a survey are limited, especially in terms of technology and production. If there are different news, different opinions and opinions, we also hope to leave a message for us and other friends to refer to.
Enter [Sina Finance and Economics Unit] Discussion
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