Sub-new stocks rose behind the hidden mystery, how to dig gold mines

Source: Oriental Fortune Securities Institute

　　

So, what is the reason for the market to "love" the new shares? When will the strong momentum of the new shares be maintained? How should investors dig into gold mines?

Restart IPO to ignite the break of new shares

Last weekend, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced that it will restart the IPO. As a result of this news, the sub-new stock sector has performed strongly in recent days, and some new stocks have started to rise rapidly, opening a round of rebound.

　　

According to Eastern Fortune's Choice data, since November 4, Dongxing Securities has been trading at a daily limit of 5, and the cumulative increase of 60.98% in the past 5 days has become the leader of the new shares. The three stocks of Information Development, Yishang Display and Hengtong Technology have also increased by more than 50% in the past five days.

　　

The top 20 new shares listed this year, the top 20 gains since November 4

(Source: Eastern Fortune Choice data)

Multi-factor combustion-supporting new stock market

For the soaring market in the sub-new stock sector in the past few days, some analysts believe that the IPO restart has changed the subscription rules, and the new enthusiasm will be unprecedentedly raised. The success rate may become very low, and the new stock may increase even more. In contrast, the value of the new stocks will be higher. Moreover, some of the new shares, especially the sub-new shares listed since June, have not been fully speculated before, so the new shares are undoubtedly the protagonist of capital attention in the near future.

　　

In addition, some analysts pointed out that with the close of the three quarters and the end of the market, the theme of high delivery will become a bright spot in the future. As the sub-new shares have strong expectation of equity expansion, the management also has many demands, so the sub-new shares sector has become a concept distribution center for speculation.

　　

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities said in its research report that the second-time stocks tend to be strong in the rebound of the broader market, and after the IPOs were restarted in the past two times, the new stocks outperformed the market in three months and six months. At the same time, after the IPO restarts after 2000, the sub-new equity equal rights index has so far achieved a gain of over 400%.

　　

Shenwan Hongyuan Securities said that valuation, industry, performance, and catalysts have determined the strength of the new stocks:

　　

1. In terms of valuation, compared with the average PE discount of the industry, the initial increase of the sub-new shares is large. Some of the new shares have a considerable premium rate relative to the issue price, and the safety mat effect is obvious.

　　

2. Sub-new shares are generally concentrated in emerging or national key support development industries, such as high-end equipment manufacturing, computers, media, etc., benefiting from the industry's upward momentum.

　　

3. The return on net assets of the third and third quarters led all A-shares, GEM and SME board. The third-quarter net assets return ratio of emerging industries in the emerging industry was further expanded compared with the industry's average leading edge.

　　

4. The probability of transfer of sub-new shares, the implementation of equity incentives, and the probability of outreach mergers and acquisitions are larger than those of other sectors such as the GEM. The excess returns on the 5th day before and after the capital operation event are obvious, and there are more long-term excess returns after the outbound M&A event. At the same time, the new shares will lead in the forecast of the undistributed profit per share.

The new stocks' strong market "cannot stop at all"?

The new stocks continue the madness of the recent days, and there seems to be a tendency to "can't stop at all."

　　

Some analysts said that as the end of the year approaches, the performance of the new stocks is still worth looking forward to. Once a strong pattern is formed, sub-new shares tend to be the first to reluctantly. In addition, because the sub-new shares have strong prospects for equity expansion, they are often the distribution center for high-transfer and share capital. However, in the fourth quarter, the replay of the annual report is expected to start, and the sub-new shares have repeated active opportunities.

　　

However, Shenwan Hongyuan Securities pointed out that the elastic determinants of the recent two wave rebounds, the two waves rebound from July 8 to August 17 and August 26 to November 3, free float market capitalization and valuation relative to industry discounts This is the decisive variable for the explosive growth of new stocks. The interim report and the third-quarter net profit growth rate can not explain the explosiveness and persistence of the new shares, so the industry analysts' expectations for the company's future performance growth are highlighted.

Multi-dimensional mining of secondary stock gold mine

How to dig into the new stock gold mine has become the most concerned topic for investors.

　　

In this regard, Shen Wan Hongyuan Securities gave seven recommendations for stock selection: (1) industry analysts recommend the target; (2) A shares circulation market value; (3) institutional position ratio; (4) current PE and past year PE peak (5) the company's current PE relative industry PE discount; (6) the company involved in the number and progress of mergers and acquisitions; (7) involves high transfer probability; (8) turnover rate of nearly 20 trading days.

　　

In addition, from the perspective of the concept, some analysts believe that investors can superimpose the three concepts of “selling stocks + performance growth + high delivery expectations”, or will continue to be the core battlefield of the main fund.

　　

20 new stocks listed this year after November 4th

(Source: Eastern Fortune Choice data)

Institutions to raise 16 shares (list)

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