Zhuo Chuang Information, Steel Technology, China Good Packaging Network
Since entering March, the price of waste paper has risen and fallen frequently. At the beginning of March, some paper mills consumed part of the inventory, coupled with the announcement of no foreign waste imported products, which led to a slight increase in the national waste price. But on March 7, the price of waste paper turned down, Zhejiang Shanying, Zhejiang Jingxing led the drop of 30-60 yuan / ton.
On March 8, the price of waste paper continued to fall, Jiangsu Yongfengyu and Jiangxi Liwen 20-30 yuan/ton. On March 9, dozens of paper mills in East China, South China and Central China reduced the purchase price of waste paper by 30-80 yuan/ton. Among them, due to environmental inspections in North China, some paper mills stopped collecting waste paper.
(Waste paper market on March 9)
The paper analysts of the business community believe that due to the arrival of spring, the rainy weather is abnormally high, and the south to north fear will continue. Therefore, some large paper mills have released new regulations for water, making the inspection of waste paper to the factory more strict, and the waste paper to the factory is afraid. Will be reduced. It is expected that the price of waste paper will be generally stable next week and partially lowered.
As for the medium and long-term trend, another analysis agency, Zhuo Chuang Information, believes that from the public opinion, control, and resistance of the waste paper market, from the macro-environmental regulation and economic analysis, the waste paper price may continue to fluctuate.
1. On the public opinion side, Xiaolong is very positive about the price of waste paper. At the end of February, Zhang Chengfei, vice chairman and deputy chief executive of Xiaolong, said at the interim results conference that the price of waste paper should be 2,500 yuan / ton. At the same time, Zhang Yin, chairman of Nine Dragons Paper, said that the domestic waste paper raw material gap is large and difficult to repair.
2. In terms of control panel, the characteristics of super-large paper mills are still obvious. The price of Lee & Man Eagles is still relatively large, which has a strong effect on stimulating the increase of market fluctuation frequency, while the purchase price of Xiaolong waste paper has a lower frequency. Helps reduce the frequency of fluctuations in market prices.
3. In terms of the right to speak, the leading paper companies in the first half of the year have stronger voices, and the right to speak in the second half has weakened. Then, in the fourth quarter of the seasonal demand for paper packaging, the speculative behavior of the waste paper market in the first half of the year was higher than that in the second half of the year. The focus of paper enterprises is to maintain a slow and steady increase in the price of waste paper and finished paper, so the right to speak in the first half of the year is stronger.
4. At the economic level, Sino-US trade negotiations have achieved initial results. Therefore, delaying the increase of tariffs in the United States will help stabilize the demand for paper packaging in the short- and medium-term export markets. Secondly, the dividends of the two sessions will be actively released, and the short-term will help the capital return to the market. The long-term will help to expand domestic demand.
In summary, due to the excessive rainy weather, the amount of waste paper to the factory is likely to decrease. It is expected that the price of waste paper will be generally stable next week, partially lowered, showing a downward trend.
However, in the medium and long term, large paper mills are very positive about the price of waste paper, and the macroeconomic environment bottoms out. In addition, the dividends of the two sessions are actively released, and domestic demand is expected to expand. In this situation, the waste paper market is weak, and the major changes with external factors have weakened, maintaining the momentum of shocks and upwards.
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