Recently, the market for waste paper in the international market has been bullish all the way. The domestic prices of imported waste paper have also been affected. The price has risen again. Recently, the Chinese government has also submitted to the WTO an application for the collection of tariffs on a group of US imports, including waste paper. If implemented, the original zero-tariff US waste will impose a retaliatory tariff of 24%. One stone provoked thousands of layers of waves. For a time, there was a lot of talk about the price trend of imported waste paper, especially the US waste. What is the current situation of domestic imported waste paper? How much does this 24% retaliatory tariff affect the price fluctuations of imported waste paper, especially the United States?
The price of waste paper has risen steadily, and the domestic market has changed dramatically. "The price of imported waste paper has gone up too fast, and it costs almost one day!" Most waste paper import agents have similar sighs in the interview process. In the second half of May, the price of CIF for US used corrugated cardboard boxes was increased by 20-25 US dollars per ton to 160-180 US dollars per ton, while the price of newspapers and periodicals in the US for the old scrap newspaper also increased by 10-13 US dollars per ton, reaching 130-143 US dollars. At the same time, the price of the European waste and the daily waste was also rising in the United States, and the speed and magnitude of the increase in the price of waste in Europe were no less than the US waste.
Faced with such a strong increase in the price of imported waste paper, coupled with the potential for a 24% tariff on waste in the United States, domestic customers have responded.
Some of the waste paper import agents stated that their customers have reduced their orders for the United States and the United States. In particular, manufacturers with a certain amount of waste paper stocks hope to rely on existing stocks to support development for some time. However, another part of the agents revealed that their customers are starting to purchase imported waste paper in large quantities, especially as some large paper mills are organizing personnel to go abroad to purchase directly. Different measures taken by manufacturers, in addition to differences in economic strength, mainly hold different views on the future development trend of the waste paper market.
The former believes that the importation of waste paper, especially the US Waste, is frantically raising prices only for the time being. It will be better if this period of time is reached, because China is, after all, one of the important markets for waste paper in the United States. If prices are so high, Chinese customers will buy them. The amount has dropped sharply, and the price of paper will naturally be lowered. The latter’s point of view is exactly the opposite. They believe that the price of imported waste paper will not only fall in the short term but will continue to rise. The current lack of intensified replenishment means that it will have to pay a higher price in order to maintain normal production. It is hard to say whether it is right or wrong. Before the market became truly clear, this was a matter of opinion.
The increase in tariffs is not the main reason. The storm of price increases stems from supply and demand. Then China may impose a 24% tariff on the US and waste. What will be the impact on this market? If there is no tariff of 24% in the end, will the domestic imported waste paper market stabilize and prices will stop climbing or even lower? We may wish to discuss the relationship between supply and demand.
Look at the domestic demand situation first. China is a large papermaking country, and it is also a country lacking forest resources. In recent years, the domestic economy has developed rapidly. As one of the basic industries, the paper industry has also developed rapidly. Therefore, there is an increasing demand for waste paper that can serve as papermaking raw materials. .
However, regardless of quality or quantity, the domestic waste paper resources are far from meeting domestic papermaking needs. This has led to a large number of waste paper imports from abroad each year. From the point of view of import volume, the US Waste has always been the first place, and its supply is relatively stable compared to daily waste and European waste. From the aspect of quality, the US-based waste, which is mainly composed of primary pulp, also has higher quality than European waste and daily waste. Therefore, for a long time, many paper mills in the country have used U.S. scrap as their main raw material for production, and their production equipment and process flow are also specific. From this perspective, the substitutability of U.S. scrap is small, plus European waste and daily waste. The supply itself is also insufficient, so even if China really imposes a tariff of 24% on the U.S. scrap, U.S. and U.S. scrap prices continue to rise substantially, and most manufacturers still have to continue purchasing U.S. scrap.
In fact, many large paper mills in China have been vigilant when the pulp market began to rise, sending someone to buy imported waste paper as soon as possible, because the substantial increase in price of raw wood pulp will make the market for waste paper look promising.
Let's look at the supply of waste paper abroad. The sources of imported waste paper in China are mainly the United States, Japan, and Europe. The collection of waste paper is directly related to the economic situation of a country. Last year, the economic downturn in the United States caused the consumption of newsprint and corrugated paper in the country to decrease, and the amount of recycling of old corrugated paper and waste paper also decreased. Now that the US economy has started to recover, it has The supply of paper has not kept pace for a while, which has caused a shortage of supplies. In addition, the US waste paper is exported only after it meets its domestic demand. In this case, even if there is no tariff factor, the US waste will still rise. Looking back at the day's waste, many people may still remember that Japan's waste was heavily imported into the country in the second half of last year. Therefore, it hopes to rely on the import day again to resolve the urgent need. However, we must note that the reason why there was a large amount of daily waste exports in the second half of last year was due to the sluggish domestic economy. Many paper mills have closed down the remaining sources of supply. The current Japanese economy is recovering, and the paper industry as a basic industry is the first Following the recovery, the supply of Japanese waste paper is still insufficient at present, and there is almost no possibility of substantial increase in exports. As for the European waste, affected by the large environment in which the international waste paper market is in short supply, the price of the waste paper is of course going up, and even exceeding the trend of the US and the waste. In addition, considering that countries such as Thailand, India and Malaysia are looting large amounts of waste paper, the international waste paper market may still be the seller’s market in the short term, and prices will continue to rise. The Chinese waste paper market will also be affected. Therefore, people in the industry believe that 24% of the tariff is a cause of waste paper price fluctuations, but without this factor, according to the current macroeconomic and market trends, at least in the last two or three months, imported waste paper prices will rise .
Of course, the trend of the market and the increase in tariffs are still uncertain, but one thing is certain, that is, there will be some fluctuations in the waste paper market in recent months, so in this eventful, the domestic paper industry and imported waste paper Agents must pay close attention to the dynamics of the international market, ready to respond. At the same time, we also hope that domestic waste paper recycling can end the current disorderly state as soon as possible, establish a more complete waste paper recycling management mechanism, strengthen environmental awareness, improve waste paper recycling utilization, to reduce the domestic paper industry to import waste The dependence of paper on the supply of raw materials for production is no longer subject to long-term control.
The price of waste paper has risen steadily, and the domestic market has changed dramatically. "The price of imported waste paper has gone up too fast, and it costs almost one day!" Most waste paper import agents have similar sighs in the interview process. In the second half of May, the price of CIF for US used corrugated cardboard boxes was increased by 20-25 US dollars per ton to 160-180 US dollars per ton, while the price of newspapers and periodicals in the US for the old scrap newspaper also increased by 10-13 US dollars per ton, reaching 130-143 US dollars. At the same time, the price of the European waste and the daily waste was also rising in the United States, and the speed and magnitude of the increase in the price of waste in Europe were no less than the US waste.
Faced with such a strong increase in the price of imported waste paper, coupled with the potential for a 24% tariff on waste in the United States, domestic customers have responded.
Some of the waste paper import agents stated that their customers have reduced their orders for the United States and the United States. In particular, manufacturers with a certain amount of waste paper stocks hope to rely on existing stocks to support development for some time. However, another part of the agents revealed that their customers are starting to purchase imported waste paper in large quantities, especially as some large paper mills are organizing personnel to go abroad to purchase directly. Different measures taken by manufacturers, in addition to differences in economic strength, mainly hold different views on the future development trend of the waste paper market.
The former believes that the importation of waste paper, especially the US Waste, is frantically raising prices only for the time being. It will be better if this period of time is reached, because China is, after all, one of the important markets for waste paper in the United States. If prices are so high, Chinese customers will buy them. The amount has dropped sharply, and the price of paper will naturally be lowered. The latter’s point of view is exactly the opposite. They believe that the price of imported waste paper will not only fall in the short term but will continue to rise. The current lack of intensified replenishment means that it will have to pay a higher price in order to maintain normal production. It is hard to say whether it is right or wrong. Before the market became truly clear, this was a matter of opinion.
The increase in tariffs is not the main reason. The storm of price increases stems from supply and demand. Then China may impose a 24% tariff on the US and waste. What will be the impact on this market? If there is no tariff of 24% in the end, will the domestic imported waste paper market stabilize and prices will stop climbing or even lower? We may wish to discuss the relationship between supply and demand.
Look at the domestic demand situation first. China is a large papermaking country, and it is also a country lacking forest resources. In recent years, the domestic economy has developed rapidly. As one of the basic industries, the paper industry has also developed rapidly. Therefore, there is an increasing demand for waste paper that can serve as papermaking raw materials. .
However, regardless of quality or quantity, the domestic waste paper resources are far from meeting domestic papermaking needs. This has led to a large number of waste paper imports from abroad each year. From the point of view of import volume, the US Waste has always been the first place, and its supply is relatively stable compared to daily waste and European waste. From the aspect of quality, the US-based waste, which is mainly composed of primary pulp, also has higher quality than European waste and daily waste. Therefore, for a long time, many paper mills in the country have used U.S. scrap as their main raw material for production, and their production equipment and process flow are also specific. From this perspective, the substitutability of U.S. scrap is small, plus European waste and daily waste. The supply itself is also insufficient, so even if China really imposes a tariff of 24% on the U.S. scrap, U.S. and U.S. scrap prices continue to rise substantially, and most manufacturers still have to continue purchasing U.S. scrap.
In fact, many large paper mills in China have been vigilant when the pulp market began to rise, sending someone to buy imported waste paper as soon as possible, because the substantial increase in price of raw wood pulp will make the market for waste paper look promising.
Let's look at the supply of waste paper abroad. The sources of imported waste paper in China are mainly the United States, Japan, and Europe. The collection of waste paper is directly related to the economic situation of a country. Last year, the economic downturn in the United States caused the consumption of newsprint and corrugated paper in the country to decrease, and the amount of recycling of old corrugated paper and waste paper also decreased. Now that the US economy has started to recover, it has The supply of paper has not kept pace for a while, which has caused a shortage of supplies. In addition, the US waste paper is exported only after it meets its domestic demand. In this case, even if there is no tariff factor, the US waste will still rise. Looking back at the day's waste, many people may still remember that Japan's waste was heavily imported into the country in the second half of last year. Therefore, it hopes to rely on the import day again to resolve the urgent need. However, we must note that the reason why there was a large amount of daily waste exports in the second half of last year was due to the sluggish domestic economy. Many paper mills have closed down the remaining sources of supply. The current Japanese economy is recovering, and the paper industry as a basic industry is the first Following the recovery, the supply of Japanese waste paper is still insufficient at present, and there is almost no possibility of substantial increase in exports. As for the European waste, affected by the large environment in which the international waste paper market is in short supply, the price of the waste paper is of course going up, and even exceeding the trend of the US and the waste. In addition, considering that countries such as Thailand, India and Malaysia are looting large amounts of waste paper, the international waste paper market may still be the seller’s market in the short term, and prices will continue to rise. The Chinese waste paper market will also be affected. Therefore, people in the industry believe that 24% of the tariff is a cause of waste paper price fluctuations, but without this factor, according to the current macroeconomic and market trends, at least in the last two or three months, imported waste paper prices will rise .
Of course, the trend of the market and the increase in tariffs are still uncertain, but one thing is certain, that is, there will be some fluctuations in the waste paper market in recent months, so in this eventful, the domestic paper industry and imported waste paper Agents must pay close attention to the dynamics of the international market, ready to respond. At the same time, we also hope that domestic waste paper recycling can end the current disorderly state as soon as possible, establish a more complete waste paper recycling management mechanism, strengthen environmental awareness, improve waste paper recycling utilization, to reduce the domestic paper industry to import waste The dependence of paper on the supply of raw materials for production is no longer subject to long-term control.
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